Demon Deacons and Cavs meet in ACC affair

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/08/2012 - Charlottesville, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Wake Forest Demon Deacons will attempt to snap their four-game losing streak tonight as they head to the John Paul Jones Arena for an Atlantic Coast Conference battle against the 19th- ranked Virginia Cavaliers.

This will be the 119th meeting between Wake Forest and Virginia. The Demon Deacons hold a 69-59 advantage in the rivalry after a 76-71 victory over the Cavaliers in last season's only encounter.

Wake Forest enters tonight's game 11-12 overall and 2-7 in ACC play after its 87-76 loss to the NC State Wolfpack on Saturday. The Demon Deacons had a strong offensive performance against NC State, as they made 50 percent of their field goals and 10-of-17 from three-point range, but they allowed NC State to knock down 52.5 percent of their shots. Head coach Jeff Bzdelik's team will have to focus on the defensive end if it wants to make a run in the ACC, as it ranks last in the league with an allowed average of 70.7 ppg.

The Demon Deacons are led by the ACC's top scoring duo of C.J. Harris and Travis McKie. Harris is ranked second in the conference in scoring with 17.5 ppg and McKie is a very close behind in fifth with an average of 15.8 ppg. McKie is also leading the team in rebounding with an average of 7.2 rpg. Ty Walker, Chase Fischer, and NikitaMescheriakov combined to contribute 33 points in the recent loss to NC State.

Head coach Tony Bennett's team comes in with a 18-4 overall record and a 5-3 mark in league play after its 58-55 loss to the Florida State Seminoles on Saturday. The Cavaliers overcame a double-digit deficit before losing the bout with Florida State. Virginia's four losses have been by a combined 10 points. Virginia is an elite team defensively as it ranks second in the nation in scoring defense with an allowed average of just 51.4 ppg on 39.2 percent shooting. Only four teams have eclipsed the 60-point mark against the Cavaliers this season. Virginia's focus on the defensive end has left it with a sub par scoring average of 63.9 ppg.

Forward Mike Scott continues to lead Virginia with averages of 17.0 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. Scott is leading the ACC in field goal efficiency with a connection rate of 58.8 percent. Joe Harris complements Scott nicely from the guard slot. Harris is the team's second leading scorer with 12.7 ppg after he went 5-of-12 from the field to score 16 points against Florida State. Jontel Evans is the top distributor for the Cavaliers as he his dishing out a team- high 3.7 assists per contest.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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